When Morsi became the president. Or Shafiq did. Or maybe neither. God this sh*t is confusing…

If you are like most of the world you are likely super confused at the twisted and tangled state of Egyptian politics – specifically elections.  And rightfully so.   Honestly we all are.  But being that I do live here and follow this train wreck and I teach politics and all I feel I am informed enough to offer some sort of an (overly simplified, slightly biased and under researched thanks to my crap internet connection) explanation. 

First a quick note on the state of the deposed Hosni Mubarak.  Mubarak was found guilty of not stopping the deaths of protesters and given a life sentence.  (This is only 25 yrs in Egypt)  No one was held responsible for giving the orders to shoot at protesters and all the heads of the police got off with no charges.  Really sad.  Mubarak was moved from the hospital he’s been in to Tora prison hospital where he spent 4 hours refusing to get off the helicopter.  Last Tuesday night state TV announced that Mubarak had died in custody.  Then 10 minutes later they announced he was mostly alive or maybe mostly dead.  Or deadish.  Or kind of alive.  So he was taken to another hospital where he has apparently miraculously recovered.  Seems to me like a plot to get him out of jail. 

Now lets take it back to parliamentary elections in January.  Egyptians vote using 2 separate ballots – one for individual candidates (candidates who are running as independents, unaffiliated with any political party) and the other as a closed party system list (voters choose a political party and based on the percentage of their overall votes they get a certain number of seats in the parliament.)  The point here is to allow individual candidates a chance to run.  Well for some reason the Elections Board decided to allow political parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the ultra conservative-boarding on fundamentalist Salafi’s Al Nour Party to run candidates on the individual list ballot.  So when the votes all came in the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis won an overwhelming percentage of the parliament.  (They respectively hold 49% and 20% of seats, which makes 69% of seats in parliament Islamist.)  This has been a bit of a thorn in the side of a parliament, which owes its existence to a secular revolution with democratic goals.  The biggest issue I would argue has been the make up of the committee that will hopefully maybe someday write Egypt’s new constitution.  Islamists and liberals within parliament had been in a bitter battle over who exactly should be on this committee.  The Muslim Brotherhood argued that the committee should be made up of parliamentarians (not a surprise as they dominate parliament and this would ensure a constitution rooted in Islam) while liberals demanded a committee made up of outside experts – constitutional lawyers, economists, doctors, etc to ensure a constitution rooted in –get this – democracy.  So far 2 committees have been formed and liberals have walked out in protest of both.  Soooo we are left without a constitution.  Not a great environment to elect a president into.  Just to school you a bit on constitutions, a constitution is where the powers of the president are laid out.  What he/she can and cannot do.  So to elect a president with undefined powers is insane.

A few months after parliament was elected the buzz about presidential elections began.  Under Mubarak no opposition political parties had the right to exist.  Opposition candidates were barred from participating in elections and even jailed.  So there were an overwhelming number of inexperienced and unaffiliated candidates running.  The Elections Committee decided to pass legislation known as the Political Isolation Law shortly before the deadline for announcing official candidacy.  This law said that anyone who had been a high-ranking member of Mubarak’s National Democratic Party was to be excluded from presidential elections.  (ummmm Shafiq?!)

During the election there were 23 officially registered candidates.  23!  One of the problems with this is that the liberal and secular vote was split up between a few different candidates whereas the Muslim Brotherhood supporters had only one person to support.  In the end no one candidate received over 50% of votes and so the final round of elections comes down to the top 2 equally disturbing and horrible options for president that Egyptians voted for last week:  The Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate Mohammed Morsi and Mubarak’s formed Aviation Minister and Prime Minister for the last month of his presidency – Ahmed Shafiq.  What the deuce.  So people are not happy.  How does one choose from these two clowns?  The choice is between having an Islamist as president or going back to virtually the same government as Mubarak.  Both of these options effectively shit on the revolution.  Many people choose to invalidate their votes either to show resistance or simply because they wanted to be sure their ballots weren’t sold in the polling places.  (word on the street is you can buy an unused ballot for 4LE in polling stations.)  My roommate Sarah checked both candidates and wrote “Down with military rule!” on the bottom of her ballot.

But let me back up a little bit.  DAYS before the elections the Constitutional Court decided to issue verdicts on 2 cases that have been before them for months.  The first dealt with the aforementioned individual vs. party ballot system.  The court ruled that the 1/3 of seats in parliament that were to have been filled by individual candidates were filled unconstitutionally as parties were allowed to run their own candidates.  Solid legal decision but very suspect timing.  So the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) in all of it’s infinite wisdom, dissolved parliament days before the final presidential election.  At the same time the court announced a decision regarding a case involving Shafiq and the Political Isolation Law.  You see the law says that no high-ranking member under Muarak was to run in the elections, but Shafiq was his Prime Minister for Chrissake!  Anyways, unsurprisingly (since SCAF loves Shafiq and nothing in Egypt happens unless SCAF allows it to happen) the court allowed Shafiq to remain as a finalist for the presidency.  So it is under these conditions that Egyptians went to the polls to “vote” for a new president:  no parliament and no constitution.  Which basically means that SCAF is waiting to see who is president before they decide what powers he will have.  Oh yeah!  SCAF also decided that since there is no parliament, they would oversee the writing of the constitution.  Because letting the military write the most important legal document in a country is such a great idea.


Added to all this is the Constitutional Declaration that SCAF announced a day before final elections giving themselves pretty much full autonomy in matters of the military (new president will not be commander in chief nor will he have any oversight of military budget) and extensive legislative powers which seem to render any new president pretty much powerless.  

So where does that leave us?  In a clusterfuck of stupid is where.  Elections were last week and results were supposed to have been announced on Thursday.  Which they weren’t.  Initial reports are that Morsi got the most votes but both sides have claimed victory and both sides have been scolded by SCAF.  The way I see it (along with many others) is that the wait now is not about counting votes, the wait is about negotiations with SCAF.  Largely substantiated rumors claim that SCAF is negotiating with the Muslim Brotherhood.  SCAF wants them to accept certain conditions before they will “allow” Morsi to be declared president.  Things like a permanent place in the political scene, no civilian oversight of the military budget and lord knows what else.  If the Brotherhood accepts these conditions, SCAF will “allow” Morsi to be the president.  If not, they will announce a Shafiq victory.  Now this is all rumors of course but after a year of following this circus I am fairly confident that this is in fact the case.

Once again Tahrir is full of people.  Islamists who are tired of the constant battle they fight for political inclusion (they have been fighting to be allowed into the political scene for 30 yrs); revolutionaries who see this last year and a half as a total waste since we are likely to see a return to Mubarak style government with a Shafiq victory, and everyone else who just wants something, anything to happen to bring back some sort of stability to a corrupt and broken system. 

Everyone is a bit on edge uncertain of the reaction of the people if Shafiq is announced as the winner.  Silly ex-pats are whispering about stocking up on pet food, phone credits and beer in case of another revolution and Shafiq has vowed to respond to any protests with “brutal force”.  Call me naïve but I just don’t see any of that happening.  It seems to me that the majority of Egyptians are exhausted and just want it to be over.  So for now we wait....

Long Overdue Update

It is a beautiful morning in Cairo.  In the seventies, birds chirping and I got to sleep in!  Ive been horrible at keeping this current so I am going to cut and paste an email I wrote to some people back in the states as a quick update...

Things here are amazing.  I love work, my kids drive me insane but if they didn't something would be wrong, right?  The military and security forces have been cracking down on American NGOs in Cairo and 3 wks ago the school asked for my passport.  Usually this is because they are updating my visa but generally I get it back after a few days.  So after a week I asked why they had it and when I could get it back.  The people who generally know these kinds of things had no answers for me and didn't know when I would get it back.  So logically I started freaking the fuck out.  "Shit.  I'm an American political science teacher who is openly critical of the government and military and who is currently teaching a section of the book that the school ripped out (***holy god story to follow***)  So I was convinced for a week or so that they were investing me and had my passport so I couldn't leave the country.  I got it back the other day 7amdulilah but still have no clue why they had it. Ahhhhh the life of a "foreign hand" under military rule.

So here is a crazy story for you.  As I'm sure you all know there was some horrible things that  went down at a soccer match here in early February.  A little background: the Zamalek (a neighborhood in Cairo) team, Al Ahly has VERY devoted fans who call themselves "Ultras", most who are teenage boys and men under 30.  .The ultras are not only notoriously prone to fighting with other teams fans, they have also been a huge part of the revolution.  Their field is just across the Nile bridge that runs into Tahrir Sq. and after every match since last Jan they walk to Tahrir. They are the largest, loudest group at every protest and have marches in Cairo all the time. The revolution would not be what it was without the Ultras.

Since Egyptian soccer fans can be a bit rowdy, they are separated in the stadium on opposite sides with locked gates down the middle so they cant be near each other.  After matches each team leaves out a separate gate on opposite sides of the stadium and there is an enormous amount of security from the stadium staff as well as police and military.  Also everyone goes through metal detectors and is patted down and bags checked on the way in. ALWAYS.  In a nutshel l....security anticipates violence and when it happens it is stopped VERY quickly.  

In early Feb Al Ahly was playing in a town called Port Said and after the game over 75 ultras were massacred.  It is abundantly clear that this was a planned event.  First of all, fans were not patted down or bags checked on the way into the stadium.  Furthermore close to the end of the match people were let into the stadium carrying clubs and bats.  Then, after the game (which al ahly won so their fans had no reason to cause trouble), security OPENED THE GATES between the port said and ultras sides and hundreds of port said fans (many of whom are believed to have been paid by someone (ahem the police)) poured into the ultras stands and began massacring them using bats, guns, metal batons, you name it.  As if this isn't enough evidence, security, the military and the police (who generally break up  these fights before they even have a chance to get bad) stood there and WATCHED.  Hundreds of armed security forces who had the means to stop the fighting are on tape standing and watching the massacre.  So 74 fans (all under 30, the youngest was 11) were slaughtered.  It is clear that this is a sort of retribution against the ultras by the police and military for their role in the revolution.  And it is heart breaking.  I do not know anyone who did not know someone who died that day.  Luckily I don't.  2 of my students had brothers die though.  SOOO of course this happens while I am in Luxor with my parents and I have taken the week of of school.  Thank God I was not in school because I would have quit or been fired due to the following incident...

The school I work at is a campus with 5 separate international schools (American, British, French, German, Egyptian).  Each has its own administration but there is one horrid woman, Nadia Hafez, who is the superintendent of them all. (she actually owns the place as well.  hello conflict of interest!!!) This woman sucks.  She runs the school like a business, for serious profit.  Plus we are fairly certain she has ties to the military.  OK back to story... I have a student, Sarah, who is amazing.  She is a great student, super sweet and generally quiet.  There was a general strike planned in Egypt for Feb 11 to protest SCAF and the handling of the port said incident.  So on the 8th Sarah handed out fliers just explaining what civil disobedience is.  Not advocating any action just informational.  so the administration gets wind of this, confiscates the fliers and calls an emergency meeting with the students.  During this meeting Ms Nadia tells the students that they must be patient with the SCAF and let them do what they need to do.  She says that "the retarded girl" who handed out the fliers knows nothing about civil disobedience.  that civil disobedience was first used in SERBIA IN THE 1990s and that the United States would NEVER resort to something like civil disobedience and so anyone who chooses not to attend school on the day of the strike will be expelled.  She then opens the floor up for questions.  Another of my students stands up and says wait..."what about Gandhi and martin luther king?  wasn't the whole civil rights movement based on civil disobedience?"   "No" she says "that was a group of NIGGER boys acting out against the government."  and by the way, they were apparently hanged.  So Sarah asks a question about Port Said and during her question she starts to cry (she lost 2 friends in the incident)  Ms Nadia starts screaming at her about how she is a sissy and to sit down until she stops crying.  So from this point on, anytime a student asks a question that is critical of the government or SCAF or the police, Ms Nadia straight up turns off the microphone.  What?!  WHAT?!  Bitch is CRAAAAZY.  So I get back to school and all my friends and students are like thank god you weren't there you would have quit or been fired.  And yeah, i probs would have been.  So if that is not enough, the administration calls Sarah's parents and tells them she has been ditching school to go to Tahrir.  TOTAL LIE.  First of all, I would know.  Secondly, she is such a good kid.  Her parents believe her but still, what the heck?!  Also, a few weeks ago one of my boys needed to go to the nurse; he'd been in the tear gas near Tahrir and was feeling short of breath and weak.  The tear gas recently has led to over 70 deaths so this is of great concern.  In order to go to the nurse you need permission from your grade supervisor.  For 12th grade this is Ms Nadia's daughter, Rania.  So Rania asks him why is it that he thinks he feels sick and he finally admits hes been at Tahrir.  Rania tells him this is his own fault, she does not feel bad for him and no - he may not go to the nurse.  What!?  WHAT?!?!?  So i walked him down to her myself.

So I decided at this point i needed to teach civil resistance.  i went to the poli sci book and found the chapter about it in my book in the table of contents.  imagine my surprise when i went to the page number it said in the book and it wasn't there!  The school had removed the whole chapter!  So I am teaching it anyways using a power point.  hahahaha.  Other than that nothing big in the news here.  Presidential elections will take place in June which is sure to be a complete circus.  Oy.  I plan on being in the states for that whole affair.

Parliament is currently debating who should be chosen for the 100 member panel that will write the new constitution.  Islamists (the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis combined) control about 60% if not more of parliament and so they want 40-60% of the panel to come from within parliament.  Liberals on the other hand think that the majority of the panel should be from outside the parliament.  It is messy and I have little faith it will get done this spring as planned.  But we shall see.

Here are some photos I took on a walk through Old Cairo a month or so ago while my parents were here...

 This one is graffitt on a wall on Mohamed Mahmoud St where much of the violence between police, security and protesters takes place.  It was recently painted over by the military,

I am planning a trip back to the states sometime in June-July for 3 weeks or so and hope to see you all!!!